HF News
Last week we warned you about a potential geomagnetic disturbance caused by a triple CME whammy from the Sun. As it turned out the Kp index rose to 6.33 and poor HF conditions ensued, just in time for national field day.
Luckily, Sunday wasn’t quite so bad, but it does show how a Kp index rise can damage HF propagation.
A further CME warning has since been cancelled, but we are not out of the woods just yet. A long-duration mid-level C-Flare was observed in the northeast quadrant of the Sun, peaking at just after midnight on June 11. A coronal mass ejection (CME) with a possible Earth-directed component is possible, which could lead to a Kp index rise at the beginning of this weekend.
Meanwhile, the solar flux index declined to 124 on Thursday 11th as predicted, but that’s still enough for some DX potential.
Sporadic E has been providing lots of entertainment, so make the most of it during June, which is one of the best months for Es activity. Settled geomagnetic conditions, with a low Kp index, do appear to provide the best time for Es.
DX to be worked this week includes 5Z4/MM0ZBH (Kenya), who is active until June 16-17th and has been spotted on 10m FT8 and 20m CW and SSB; PJ2/PH2M (Curacao) who is there until June 29th and is active on mainly FT8 with some SSB; OX3LX (Greenland) until June 24; D4OL (Cape Verde) on FT8 and FT4 until June 26; and finally FS/K9EL (St Martin) until June 24.
While we are in this period of Summer thunder storms, a reminder that it may be a good idea to unplug the antennas from your HF radios when not in use. But make sure you do this BEFORE any storm approaches!
Next week, NOAA predicts that the SFI will be in the range 120-130. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are forecast all week, with a maximum Kp index of three. But be aware of CMEs which are not easily predicted. Any solar flare and subsequent CME could upset the apple cart, so keep an eye on solarham.com for up to date news.
VHF and up
There have been some very good sporadic-E conditions recently, particularly at 50MHz with openings at lunchtime and into the evening towards the USA on Tuesday and Wednesday (10th-11th June) and to Japan on Thursday morning.
70MHz has seen openings, mainly to eastern Europe and Spain. Notably we haven’t seen much in the way of 144 MHz Es yet, but QSOs have been made by a lucky few. All this Es activity has probably been aided by the extra long-lived metallic ions from meteors of the daytime Arietids, an important shower in early June.
The other ingredient often associated with Es is the presence of jet streams, which are very effective at generating turbulence that can propagate up to the E region and aid Es formation. The coming week looks to be reasonably set up with jet stream activity, probably more for the northern half of Europe so may favour Scandinavia and the Baltic, with the occasional opportunity farther south.
As for meteor scatter, there is a gap in the calendar and it’s probably a case of relying upon random activity which tends to peak around dawn, but rain scatter may fare better with a chance of showers, especially in northern parts of the country. The solar conditions have recently been at the low end of the scale between Kp = 1 and 3 and typical of high summer, which makes chances of radio auroras also a low value.
It may be worth a final return to weather patterns since there will be a period of high pressure over this weekend before low pressure returns to northern Britain next week, although the south may stay close to higher pressure. This offers a chance of some Tropo conditions at first and occasionally in the south.
EME now, and Moon declination continues to increase to a maximum on Monday the 15th with path losses falling towards minimum at perigee the same day. 144 MHz sky temperature is moderate, becoming high on Monday with the Sun close to the Moon, before falling back to low again from Wednesday.