HF News
It looks like Earth dodged a bullet last week when a massive coronal mass ejection erupted on the far side of the Sun on Tuesday, the 21st.
Had that CME been Earth-directed, we could have endured a strong, or even possibly an extreme, geomagnetic storm with dazzling displays of aurora. The source of the eruption was possibly sunspot region 4246, which is now past the Sun’s west limb.
The ACE spacecraft detected high levels of protons streaming past Earth, but they remained below the minor (S1) radiation storm threshold.
In other news, we have had a quiet week geomagnetically, which has allowed the ionosphere to shine. The solar flux index has been modest, ranging from 130 to 150, but has been aided by improved geomagnetic conditions.
Ten metres has been humming with activity as stations prepare for CQ Worldwide SSB this weekend, the 25th/36th October.
8P5A in Barbados has been romping in during the afternoon, as has HZ0YL in Saudi Arabia. If conditions remain good, CQWW should be a good event.
Other DX worked last week, according to the CDXC Slack group, includes VK9DX (Norfolk Island) on 12m SSB, 6O3T (Somalia) on 40m CW, and PJ6Y (Saba, St Eustatius) on 12m SSB. This last station is a young radio amateurs’ DXpedition by the Pacific Island DX Group.
Next week NOAA predicts that the SFI will stay in the range 140-150, with the Kp index starting the week low, but then rising. We may expect a Kp of five or even six around October 28th to 31st. Look for auroral conditions and lower MUFs during this period.
Meanwhile, make the most of the long-range propagation on the higher bands.
VHF and up
The period of weather up to the end of next week looks distinctly unsettled with the weather pattern driven by an Atlantic jet stream pointing straight at the British Isles. This will mean that further periods of stormy weather are possible with strong winds and heavy rain. This is not a time to expect much Tropo for VHF or UHF, but a good period for the GHz bands to explore rain scatter propagation.
The foF2 and foEs graphs on www.propquest.co.uk have been experiencing some data supply issues recently. It’s worth noting that strong jet streams and fast-moving weather systems, as we have now, can bring a chance of out-of-season Sporadic-E.
A good example on the evening of Sunday October 19th, can be found if you check the archive tab. This four-hour active period was possibly associated with a slowly advancing jet stream as seen on the Es blog tab for that date.
The meteor scatter operators had the Orionids to play with last week, peaking on the 22nd, and the broad zone of activity may continue to provide weakening interest through the coming week.
The Kp index has been relatively subdued recently, but the message is once again to continue to monitor for the chance openings by noting when Kp index reaches Kp=5 or more, or if you start to hear LF CW signals take on a fluttery note.
For EME operators, the Moon’s declination is at a minimum over the weekend of the 25th, so Moon window lengths and peak elevation are both low. Apogee was early on Friday the 24th, so path losses are falling again. 144 MHz sky noise rises over the weekend, reaching some 3300K on Sunday the 26th, before falling steadily to low levels the following Friday.